16 September 2012

Iran: EU diplomats fear sanctions will lead to war

Interesting tweet yesterday from Trita Parsi, author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the U.S., Yale University Press 2007 & 2008.

Trita Parsi (@tparsi)
15/09/12 1:25 PM
While the French say we need more sanctions to prevent war w/ #Iran, other EU diplomats privately express fear sanctions will lead to war

I have no further background on what has informed the tweet, but it has been my longstanding fear that the sanctions against Iran will lead to war, either inadvertently or by choice.

The United States has promised Israel that Iran will not be permitted to develop a nuclear weapon, and proffers “crippling sanctions” rather than a pre-emptive strike as the way to achieve the desired result – which can only be temporary, as nothing that can be done at a particular moment of history can permanently deprive a country of the option to do anything.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and as a matter both of national pride and national interest it will not be dissuaded.

The US response to Iran failing to respond to its demands will be to ratchet up the sanctions; the Iranian response will be to dig in. Both countries will sail closer to the brink while escalating their rhetoric. It is hard to see this ending in anything but tears.

For earlier posts relevant to this story see Iran position on nuclear deal no surprise for some background on Iran’s attitude to the West’s demands regarding its nuclear program, for posts on why sanctions are a bad idea see Iran: Sanctions are in the air and Iran: sanctions still on the agenda, and for an analysis of why it is dangerous to play games around the Strait of Hormuz see Choke point: the Strait of Hormuz.

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